By Ilyce Glink of CBS Money Watch
What does the U.S. housing market look like without all the life support provided by the federal government?
A little too much like a corpse.
In the wake of the 27 percent drop in existing home sales announced by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) earlier this week to a level last seen 15 years ago, and a 12.1 percent drop in new home sales to a level not ever seen since records started being kept in 1963, Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan took to the airwaves this morning to announce that the federal government was going to do everything in its power to restart the housing market, including:
New mortgage program for unemployed borrowers. Apparently the HAMP unemployed borrowers program isn’t exactly catching on fire with lenders.
New FHA refinance program for homeowners who are underwater. Gee, HAMP isn’t working there too well, so perhaps HUD is going to take the very savvy suggestion made by Bill Gross at PIMCO and perhaps refinance all homeowners who are current on their loans to an FHA loan at 4 percent. If 10 million Americans can take advantage of an FHA refinance and lower their payments by $100 per month, the government is betting that at least SOME of that money will find its way into economic firmament, and help pull us out of the recession.
New home buyer tax credits. Donovan didn’t exactly say “Yes” to this one, but he hasn’t ruled it out either.
Let’s just call it like it is, folks. The real estate market is in a depression. It’s not a recession when your sales are down 80 percent or more. It’s not a recession when you’ve wound back sales to where they were 15 years ago.
Will any of these programs pull the housing market out of its depression? I doubt it. As I said more than a year ago, what we need are jobs. Jobs pay the bills - mortgage, credit card, utilities, food, etc. If you don’t have a job, all the government refinancing programs in the world aren’t going to make a difference.
Showing posts with label san diego real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label san diego real estate. Show all posts
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
OPEN HOUSE In CARLSBAD CA. 8/28-8/29
3016 Rancho La Presa Carlsbad, CA. 92009. Come on down and view this delightful twinhome with a downstairs Master Suite on a quiet cul-de-sac in wonderful Rancho Carrillo. This great home with a flexible floor plan features 2 upstairs bedrooms plus a large loft (great as an office, library, gym - you name it), spacious living room w/ soaring ceilings, & an open kitchen (with granite counters) w/ views to the private backyard. You'll enjoy the ease of the downstairs tile floors & the low maintenance yard. Plus, enjoy all that Rancho Carrillo has to offer!
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Home Sales Down, Prices Go Up
Daily Real Estate News | August 24, 2010 |
July Existing-Home Sales Fall, But Prices Rise
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009. Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.
“Even with sales pausing for a few months, annual sales are expected to reach 5 million in 2010 because of healthy activity in the first half of the year. To place in perspective, annual sales averaged 4.9 million in the past 20 years, and 4.4 million over the past 30 years,” Yun added.
Mortgage Rates Dip
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.56 percent in July from 4.74 percent in June; the rate was 5.22 percent in July 2009. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed was down to 4.42 percent.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.
“Thanks to the home buyer tax credit, home values have been stable for the past 18 months despite heavy job losses,” Yun said. “Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers. However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and from very low new-home construction, there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward.”
Inventory Rises
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said there are great opportunities now for buyers who weren’t able to take advantage of the tax credit. “Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position,” she said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.
Breakdown of the Numbers
• Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million.
• The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago.
• Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 11 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in July in comparison with July 2009 (the price in one of 20 tracked markets was not available). However, existing single-family home sales fell in all 20 areas from a year ago.
• Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 28.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 in July from 640,000 in June, and are 24.0 percent below the 605,000-unit level in July 2009. The median existing condo price was $176,800 in July, down 1.7 percent from a year ago.
By Region
• Existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 29.5 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in July and are 30.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $263,800, up 4.8 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 35.0 percent in July to a level of 800,000 and are 33.3 percent below July 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $151,600, down 2.8 percent from a year ago.
• In the South, existing-home sales dropped 22.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.54 million in July and are 19.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $156,300, down 3.3 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the West fell 25.0 percent to an annual level of 870,000 in July and are 23.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $224,800, up 3.3 percent from July 2009.
Source: NAR
July Existing-Home Sales Fall, But Prices Rise
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009. Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.
“Even with sales pausing for a few months, annual sales are expected to reach 5 million in 2010 because of healthy activity in the first half of the year. To place in perspective, annual sales averaged 4.9 million in the past 20 years, and 4.4 million over the past 30 years,” Yun added.
Mortgage Rates Dip
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.56 percent in July from 4.74 percent in June; the rate was 5.22 percent in July 2009. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed was down to 4.42 percent.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.
“Thanks to the home buyer tax credit, home values have been stable for the past 18 months despite heavy job losses,” Yun said. “Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers. However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and from very low new-home construction, there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward.”
Inventory Rises
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said there are great opportunities now for buyers who weren’t able to take advantage of the tax credit. “Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position,” she said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.
Breakdown of the Numbers
• Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million.
• The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago.
• Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 11 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in July in comparison with July 2009 (the price in one of 20 tracked markets was not available). However, existing single-family home sales fell in all 20 areas from a year ago.
• Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 28.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 in July from 640,000 in June, and are 24.0 percent below the 605,000-unit level in July 2009. The median existing condo price was $176,800 in July, down 1.7 percent from a year ago.
By Region
• Existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 29.5 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in July and are 30.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $263,800, up 4.8 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 35.0 percent in July to a level of 800,000 and are 33.3 percent below July 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $151,600, down 2.8 percent from a year ago.
• In the South, existing-home sales dropped 22.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.54 million in July and are 19.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $156,300, down 3.3 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the West fell 25.0 percent to an annual level of 870,000 in July and are 23.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $224,800, up 3.3 percent from July 2009.
Source: NAR
Saturday, August 21, 2010
A Great Voice For A Great Cause
Five-Time Grammy Award Winning Christopher Cross to Headline Benefit Concert to Solve Family Homelessness at the renovated Moonlight Amphitheatre in Vista, California on October 16, 2010.
Full story: http://soulutionsforchange.org
According to the National Center of Family Homelessness, one in 50 children in America experience homelessness annually - more than 1.5 million children. Their estimated high school graduation rate is less than 25%. For those who do graduate, few are proficient in reading and math. 292,624 California children experience homelessness each year.
Full story: http://soulutionsforchange.org
According to the National Center of Family Homelessness, one in 50 children in America experience homelessness annually - more than 1.5 million children. Their estimated high school graduation rate is less than 25%. For those who do graduate, few are proficient in reading and math. 292,624 California children experience homelessness each year.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Over Priced Homes Don't Sell Well
Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less If there’s anything we can take away from the plethora of Bank Owned Foreclosures is they certainly know how to price a home to move!
I maintain that you almost always shoot yourself in the foot by overpricing your home. Your home will almost always sale at or above market value by pricing at or below market value.
So why is that? Well think back at when YOU were buying a home. Remember when a “great deal” came on the market and everybody and their agents were “swarming” to the open house? You placed your offer only to find out their were 10 other offers and they were going above the asking price? This “bargain price” created an auction affect and got people excited. THAT is how banks are pricing their homes and if you want your home to move quickly and for the most amount of money, this is a winning strategy.
So why don’t sellers do it? I think it’s because there’s a little voice inside of our head (and pocketbook) that says “what if”.
“What if”- I can get $50K over market value. (even if someone were excited enough about your home to pay $50K over appraised value, their lender won’t loan the money if the value isn’t there. No loan, no buyer)
“What if”- I don’t get multiple offers and I only get one offer (May be still overpriced!)
Often fear (and greed) hold us back from making smart choices! Don’t feel bad though, even Real Estate Agents are guilty of senselessly overpricing their homes. Somehow when it’s our turn to sell all of our “market knowledge” becomes goo and leaks out of our ears! It’s like the hairdresser with bad hair!
The bottom line is, almost always, an Over Priced House will sit on the market longer and sell for less than it should have had it been priced strategically from the beginning.
Copyright © 2010 By Stephen Munson,Munson RealtyPasadena|Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less*overpriced homes,overpriced house
I maintain that you almost always shoot yourself in the foot by overpricing your home. Your home will almost always sale at or above market value by pricing at or below market value.
So why is that? Well think back at when YOU were buying a home. Remember when a “great deal” came on the market and everybody and their agents were “swarming” to the open house? You placed your offer only to find out their were 10 other offers and they were going above the asking price? This “bargain price” created an auction affect and got people excited. THAT is how banks are pricing their homes and if you want your home to move quickly and for the most amount of money, this is a winning strategy.
So why don’t sellers do it? I think it’s because there’s a little voice inside of our head (and pocketbook) that says “what if”.
“What if”- I can get $50K over market value. (even if someone were excited enough about your home to pay $50K over appraised value, their lender won’t loan the money if the value isn’t there. No loan, no buyer)
“What if”- I don’t get multiple offers and I only get one offer (May be still overpriced!)
Often fear (and greed) hold us back from making smart choices! Don’t feel bad though, even Real Estate Agents are guilty of senselessly overpricing their homes. Somehow when it’s our turn to sell all of our “market knowledge” becomes goo and leaks out of our ears! It’s like the hairdresser with bad hair!
The bottom line is, almost always, an Over Priced House will sit on the market longer and sell for less than it should have had it been priced strategically from the beginning.
Copyright © 2010 By Stephen Munson,Munson RealtyPasadena|Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less*overpriced homes,overpriced house
Friday, August 6, 2010
Mortgage Rate Falls Under 4.5%
Freddie Mac reports that long-term mortgage rates moved south again this week.
Interest on 30-year fixed loans hit a new low of 4.49 percent, compared to 4.54 percent last week and 5.22 percent a year ago; and the 15-year mortgage landed at 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent last week and 4.63 percent a year ago.
Five-year adjustable-rate mortgages reached a new low of 3.63 percent, down from 3.76 percent last week and 4.73 percent a year ago; while one-year ARMs fell to 3.55 percent from 3.64 percent last week and 4.78 percent a year ago.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Amy Hoak and Nick Timiraos (08/06/10)
Interest on 30-year fixed loans hit a new low of 4.49 percent, compared to 4.54 percent last week and 5.22 percent a year ago; and the 15-year mortgage landed at 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent last week and 4.63 percent a year ago.
Five-year adjustable-rate mortgages reached a new low of 3.63 percent, down from 3.76 percent last week and 4.73 percent a year ago; while one-year ARMs fell to 3.55 percent from 3.64 percent last week and 4.78 percent a year ago.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Amy Hoak and Nick Timiraos (08/06/10)
Monday, August 2, 2010
Prudential Real Estate Ranks Highest for Seller Satisfaction
J.D. Power and Associates announced July 28 that the Prudential Real Estate Network ranked “Highest Overall Satisfaction for Home Sellers among National Full Service Real Estate Firms” in J.D. Power and Associates' 2010 Home Buyer/Seller Study. This marks the second time in three years that the Network ranked highest in seller satisfaction.
The annual study measures customer satisfaction of home sellers and buyers with major national real estate companies. Overall satisfaction is determined by examining four factors for the home-selling experience: agent (44%); marketing (30%); office (15%); and services (11%). Among home sellers, Prudential Real Estate scored highest on a 1,000-point scale and received particularly high ratings from customers in the marketing and agent factors.
PRERS Chairman Jim Mallozzi said the award speaks for the quality and consistency of the Prudential Real Estate Network. “Affiliate to affiliate, our sales professionals are the local-market experts who market and price homes right, while providing attentive service,” Mallozzi said.
The annual study measures customer satisfaction of home sellers and buyers with major national real estate companies. Overall satisfaction is determined by examining four factors for the home-selling experience: agent (44%); marketing (30%); office (15%); and services (11%). Among home sellers, Prudential Real Estate scored highest on a 1,000-point scale and received particularly high ratings from customers in the marketing and agent factors.
PRERS Chairman Jim Mallozzi said the award speaks for the quality and consistency of the Prudential Real Estate Network. “Affiliate to affiliate, our sales professionals are the local-market experts who market and price homes right, while providing attentive service,” Mallozzi said.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Record Lows Continue For Mortgage Rates
Record Lows Continue for Mortgage Rates
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a new low of 4.54 percent this week from 4.56 percent last week and an average of 5.25 percent a year ago.
The 15-year fixed loan rate also hit a record low of 4 percent, down from 4.03 percent a week ago and 4.69 percent last year. The five-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.76 percent, compared to 3.79 percent last week and 4.75 percent a year earlier; and one-year ARMs averaged 3.64 percent, down from 3.7 percent and 4.80 percent, respectively.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nathan Becker (07/30/10)
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a new low of 4.54 percent this week from 4.56 percent last week and an average of 5.25 percent a year ago.
The 15-year fixed loan rate also hit a record low of 4 percent, down from 4.03 percent a week ago and 4.69 percent last year. The five-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.76 percent, compared to 3.79 percent last week and 4.75 percent a year earlier; and one-year ARMs averaged 3.64 percent, down from 3.7 percent and 4.80 percent, respectively.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Nathan Becker (07/30/10)
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Home Affordability the Best In Decades
There is mounting evidence that the residential real estate prices are picking up momentum, even though naysayers continue to suggest another sharp drop is just around the corner.
Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price index shows that San Diego has seen prices increase 12.4 percent in the past 12 months, second only to San Francisco among the top 20 metropolitan areas in the country.
So, set aside the real estate bulls and bears that have emotional opinions about where prices may be headed. Instead, what do portfolio managers who run real estate mutual funds think about the current market conditions?
Remember, these people can't just hope prices go up or down, they have to make investing decisions to protect their portfolios both when prices are rising or falling.
Daniel Kelley is the lead real estate analyst and portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Construction and Housing Portfolio.
"Having just gone through a potentially once-in-a-lifetime down market, there is a bright light. Home affordability is the best in decades. In fact, on average, today's homebuyers have the lowest mortgage payments as a percentage of income in 30 years," wrote Kelley in a recent research report.
He also points out that inventories of homes for sale are at 40-year lows, meaning that homebuilders could be at a point where they could actually begin building homes again. The inventory of new homes for sale plunged last month from 9.6 months to just 7.6 months.
"I think well-capitalized public homebuilder companies are particularly well positioned to benefit from any demand improvement. These companies have had to survive through the worst market of our generation and many of the weaker firms went bankrupt," adds Kelley.
He adds that when sales ultimately pick up, new homeowners will be anxious to make their new abodes more livable, meaning trips to Home Depot and Lowe's.
"As the homebuilding rebound gains traction, companies in the building products group should benefit from improved capacity utilization rates. Homeowners looking to put their homes back on the market are frequenting home improvement retailers to make necessary repairs and updates in order to increase the sale price," said Kelley.
What about the commercial real estate situation? Kelley's colleague at Fidelity, Steve Buller, who manages the Real Estate Investment Portfolio, has a different opinion that most observers.
"While some commentators are calling commercial real estate the next shoe to drop, I don't believe it. In fact, you could argue that we've already seen the worst of the commercial real estate crisis.
Last year, commercial real estate prices had fallen roughly 40 percent from the peak. However, commercial real estate property prices have steadily risen, climbing 20 percent since their trough in May 2009," said Buller.
History says that real estate investment trusts -- and the stocks they own - have a tendency to rise months ahead of any actual turnaround in the markets.
When -- as always happens -- this recession comes to an end, many nonbelievers will find themselves left in the dust as markets move back into growth. The only problem, of course, is no one knows exactly when that will happen. - From George Chamberlin
Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price index shows that San Diego has seen prices increase 12.4 percent in the past 12 months, second only to San Francisco among the top 20 metropolitan areas in the country.
So, set aside the real estate bulls and bears that have emotional opinions about where prices may be headed. Instead, what do portfolio managers who run real estate mutual funds think about the current market conditions?
Remember, these people can't just hope prices go up or down, they have to make investing decisions to protect their portfolios both when prices are rising or falling.
Daniel Kelley is the lead real estate analyst and portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Construction and Housing Portfolio.
"Having just gone through a potentially once-in-a-lifetime down market, there is a bright light. Home affordability is the best in decades. In fact, on average, today's homebuyers have the lowest mortgage payments as a percentage of income in 30 years," wrote Kelley in a recent research report.
He also points out that inventories of homes for sale are at 40-year lows, meaning that homebuilders could be at a point where they could actually begin building homes again. The inventory of new homes for sale plunged last month from 9.6 months to just 7.6 months.
"I think well-capitalized public homebuilder companies are particularly well positioned to benefit from any demand improvement. These companies have had to survive through the worst market of our generation and many of the weaker firms went bankrupt," adds Kelley.
He adds that when sales ultimately pick up, new homeowners will be anxious to make their new abodes more livable, meaning trips to Home Depot and Lowe's.
"As the homebuilding rebound gains traction, companies in the building products group should benefit from improved capacity utilization rates. Homeowners looking to put their homes back on the market are frequenting home improvement retailers to make necessary repairs and updates in order to increase the sale price," said Kelley.
What about the commercial real estate situation? Kelley's colleague at Fidelity, Steve Buller, who manages the Real Estate Investment Portfolio, has a different opinion that most observers.
"While some commentators are calling commercial real estate the next shoe to drop, I don't believe it. In fact, you could argue that we've already seen the worst of the commercial real estate crisis.
Last year, commercial real estate prices had fallen roughly 40 percent from the peak. However, commercial real estate property prices have steadily risen, climbing 20 percent since their trough in May 2009," said Buller.
History says that real estate investment trusts -- and the stocks they own - have a tendency to rise months ahead of any actual turnaround in the markets.
When -- as always happens -- this recession comes to an end, many nonbelievers will find themselves left in the dust as markets move back into growth. The only problem, of course, is no one knows exactly when that will happen. - From George Chamberlin
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