By Ilyce Glink of CBS Money Watch
What does the U.S. housing market look like without all the life support provided by the federal government?
A little too much like a corpse.
In the wake of the 27 percent drop in existing home sales announced by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) earlier this week to a level last seen 15 years ago, and a 12.1 percent drop in new home sales to a level not ever seen since records started being kept in 1963, Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan took to the airwaves this morning to announce that the federal government was going to do everything in its power to restart the housing market, including:
New mortgage program for unemployed borrowers. Apparently the HAMP unemployed borrowers program isn’t exactly catching on fire with lenders.
New FHA refinance program for homeowners who are underwater. Gee, HAMP isn’t working there too well, so perhaps HUD is going to take the very savvy suggestion made by Bill Gross at PIMCO and perhaps refinance all homeowners who are current on their loans to an FHA loan at 4 percent. If 10 million Americans can take advantage of an FHA refinance and lower their payments by $100 per month, the government is betting that at least SOME of that money will find its way into economic firmament, and help pull us out of the recession.
New home buyer tax credits. Donovan didn’t exactly say “Yes” to this one, but he hasn’t ruled it out either.
Let’s just call it like it is, folks. The real estate market is in a depression. It’s not a recession when your sales are down 80 percent or more. It’s not a recession when you’ve wound back sales to where they were 15 years ago.
Will any of these programs pull the housing market out of its depression? I doubt it. As I said more than a year ago, what we need are jobs. Jobs pay the bills - mortgage, credit card, utilities, food, etc. If you don’t have a job, all the government refinancing programs in the world aren’t going to make a difference.
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