By Ilyce Glink of CBS Money Watch
What does the U.S. housing market look like without all the life support provided by the federal government?
A little too much like a corpse.
In the wake of the 27 percent drop in existing home sales announced by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) earlier this week to a level last seen 15 years ago, and a 12.1 percent drop in new home sales to a level not ever seen since records started being kept in 1963, Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan took to the airwaves this morning to announce that the federal government was going to do everything in its power to restart the housing market, including:
New mortgage program for unemployed borrowers. Apparently the HAMP unemployed borrowers program isn’t exactly catching on fire with lenders.
New FHA refinance program for homeowners who are underwater. Gee, HAMP isn’t working there too well, so perhaps HUD is going to take the very savvy suggestion made by Bill Gross at PIMCO and perhaps refinance all homeowners who are current on their loans to an FHA loan at 4 percent. If 10 million Americans can take advantage of an FHA refinance and lower their payments by $100 per month, the government is betting that at least SOME of that money will find its way into economic firmament, and help pull us out of the recession.
New home buyer tax credits. Donovan didn’t exactly say “Yes” to this one, but he hasn’t ruled it out either.
Let’s just call it like it is, folks. The real estate market is in a depression. It’s not a recession when your sales are down 80 percent or more. It’s not a recession when you’ve wound back sales to where they were 15 years ago.
Will any of these programs pull the housing market out of its depression? I doubt it. As I said more than a year ago, what we need are jobs. Jobs pay the bills - mortgage, credit card, utilities, food, etc. If you don’t have a job, all the government refinancing programs in the world aren’t going to make a difference.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
OPEN HOUSE In CARLSBAD CA. 8/28-8/29
3016 Rancho La Presa Carlsbad, CA. 92009. Come on down and view this delightful twinhome with a downstairs Master Suite on a quiet cul-de-sac in wonderful Rancho Carrillo. This great home with a flexible floor plan features 2 upstairs bedrooms plus a large loft (great as an office, library, gym - you name it), spacious living room w/ soaring ceilings, & an open kitchen (with granite counters) w/ views to the private backyard. You'll enjoy the ease of the downstairs tile floors & the low maintenance yard. Plus, enjoy all that Rancho Carrillo has to offer!
San Diego Prices Decline
San Diego County home prices decline
By Jennifer Davies, UNION-TRIBUNE
Friday, August 27, 2010 at 1:11 p.m.
Even with the horrific housing downturn, we here in San Diego are still pretty cocky about how our housing prices (typically) appreciate more quickly than, say, Dubuque, Iowa. Sure, we have our busts but we have our booms, too. Plus — the argument goes — we have one of the most desirable locales in the country with very little buildable land so our prices should outpace those less-glamourous areas.
But despite all that, San Diego doesn’t hold a candle to Dubuque, Springfield, Ill. or Buffalo, N.Y. when it comes to rising home prices, at least according to a recent report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The agency, which oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, tracks home sales price information by looking at mortgages — both sales and refinances — acquired through those lenders. (The good thing about this index is that it compares how the same homes perform over time. The not-so good thing about it is that looks at only conforming loans of $417,000 so a wide swath of the local market isn’t included. Also, the data is way back from the second quarter.)
In the second quarter, the metro areas with the largest increases in home prices were Springfield, up 2.68 percent from a year ago; Dubuque, up 2.41 percent; San Jose, up 1.89 percent; Orange County, up 1.45 percent; and the Huntington-Ashland area near the borders of Kentucky, West Virginia and Ohio, which was up 1.40 percent.
San Diego, by way of comparison, ranked 50th of the 303 areas surveyed with a decrease in home prices of -1.05 percent.
But what is more interesting is the five-year appreciation numbers. Whereas San Diego County’s home prices are down more than 26 percent in that time frame, Dubuque, for instance, had a 13.67 increase. Other top performers include Shreveport, La., with price gains 15.75 percent; Amarillo, Tex.; up 15.39 percent; and Buffalo, up 13.60 percent.
By Jennifer Davies, UNION-TRIBUNE
Friday, August 27, 2010 at 1:11 p.m.
Even with the horrific housing downturn, we here in San Diego are still pretty cocky about how our housing prices (typically) appreciate more quickly than, say, Dubuque, Iowa. Sure, we have our busts but we have our booms, too. Plus — the argument goes — we have one of the most desirable locales in the country with very little buildable land so our prices should outpace those less-glamourous areas.
But despite all that, San Diego doesn’t hold a candle to Dubuque, Springfield, Ill. or Buffalo, N.Y. when it comes to rising home prices, at least according to a recent report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The agency, which oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, tracks home sales price information by looking at mortgages — both sales and refinances — acquired through those lenders. (The good thing about this index is that it compares how the same homes perform over time. The not-so good thing about it is that looks at only conforming loans of $417,000 so a wide swath of the local market isn’t included. Also, the data is way back from the second quarter.)
In the second quarter, the metro areas with the largest increases in home prices were Springfield, up 2.68 percent from a year ago; Dubuque, up 2.41 percent; San Jose, up 1.89 percent; Orange County, up 1.45 percent; and the Huntington-Ashland area near the borders of Kentucky, West Virginia and Ohio, which was up 1.40 percent.
San Diego, by way of comparison, ranked 50th of the 303 areas surveyed with a decrease in home prices of -1.05 percent.
But what is more interesting is the five-year appreciation numbers. Whereas San Diego County’s home prices are down more than 26 percent in that time frame, Dubuque, for instance, had a 13.67 increase. Other top performers include Shreveport, La., with price gains 15.75 percent; Amarillo, Tex.; up 15.39 percent; and Buffalo, up 13.60 percent.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Home Sales Down, Prices Go Up
Daily Real Estate News | August 24, 2010 |
July Existing-Home Sales Fall, But Prices Rise
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009. Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.
“Even with sales pausing for a few months, annual sales are expected to reach 5 million in 2010 because of healthy activity in the first half of the year. To place in perspective, annual sales averaged 4.9 million in the past 20 years, and 4.4 million over the past 30 years,” Yun added.
Mortgage Rates Dip
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.56 percent in July from 4.74 percent in June; the rate was 5.22 percent in July 2009. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed was down to 4.42 percent.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.
“Thanks to the home buyer tax credit, home values have been stable for the past 18 months despite heavy job losses,” Yun said. “Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers. However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and from very low new-home construction, there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward.”
Inventory Rises
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said there are great opportunities now for buyers who weren’t able to take advantage of the tax credit. “Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position,” she said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.
Breakdown of the Numbers
• Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million.
• The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago.
• Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 11 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in July in comparison with July 2009 (the price in one of 20 tracked markets was not available). However, existing single-family home sales fell in all 20 areas from a year ago.
• Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 28.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 in July from 640,000 in June, and are 24.0 percent below the 605,000-unit level in July 2009. The median existing condo price was $176,800 in July, down 1.7 percent from a year ago.
By Region
• Existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 29.5 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in July and are 30.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $263,800, up 4.8 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 35.0 percent in July to a level of 800,000 and are 33.3 percent below July 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $151,600, down 2.8 percent from a year ago.
• In the South, existing-home sales dropped 22.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.54 million in July and are 19.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $156,300, down 3.3 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the West fell 25.0 percent to an annual level of 870,000 in July and are 23.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $224,800, up 3.3 percent from July 2009.
Source: NAR
July Existing-Home Sales Fall, But Prices Rise
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009. Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.
“Even with sales pausing for a few months, annual sales are expected to reach 5 million in 2010 because of healthy activity in the first half of the year. To place in perspective, annual sales averaged 4.9 million in the past 20 years, and 4.4 million over the past 30 years,” Yun added.
Mortgage Rates Dip
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.56 percent in July from 4.74 percent in June; the rate was 5.22 percent in July 2009. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed was down to 4.42 percent.
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.
“Thanks to the home buyer tax credit, home values have been stable for the past 18 months despite heavy job losses,” Yun said. “Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers. However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and from very low new-home construction, there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward.”
Inventory Rises
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said there are great opportunities now for buyers who weren’t able to take advantage of the tax credit. “Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position,” she said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.
Breakdown of the Numbers
• Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million.
• The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago.
• Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 11 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in July in comparison with July 2009 (the price in one of 20 tracked markets was not available). However, existing single-family home sales fell in all 20 areas from a year ago.
• Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 28.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 in July from 640,000 in June, and are 24.0 percent below the 605,000-unit level in July 2009. The median existing condo price was $176,800 in July, down 1.7 percent from a year ago.
By Region
• Existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 29.5 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in July and are 30.3 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $263,800, up 4.8 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 35.0 percent in July to a level of 800,000 and are 33.3 percent below July 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $151,600, down 2.8 percent from a year ago.
• In the South, existing-home sales dropped 22.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.54 million in July and are 19.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $156,300, down 3.3 percent from July 2009.
• Existing-home sales in the West fell 25.0 percent to an annual level of 870,000 in July and are 23.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $224,800, up 3.3 percent from July 2009.
Source: NAR
Saturday, August 21, 2010
A Great Voice For A Great Cause
Five-Time Grammy Award Winning Christopher Cross to Headline Benefit Concert to Solve Family Homelessness at the renovated Moonlight Amphitheatre in Vista, California on October 16, 2010.
Full story: http://soulutionsforchange.org
According to the National Center of Family Homelessness, one in 50 children in America experience homelessness annually - more than 1.5 million children. Their estimated high school graduation rate is less than 25%. For those who do graduate, few are proficient in reading and math. 292,624 California children experience homelessness each year.
Full story: http://soulutionsforchange.org
According to the National Center of Family Homelessness, one in 50 children in America experience homelessness annually - more than 1.5 million children. Their estimated high school graduation rate is less than 25%. For those who do graduate, few are proficient in reading and math. 292,624 California children experience homelessness each year.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Mortgage Rates Still Falling
By ANDREW KEATTS, The Daily Transcript
Monday, August 9, 2010
Mirroring the national trend, average mortgage rates continued to fall in San Diego County during the week ending Aug. 6, according to numbers released by the San Diego Chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Professionals (SD-CAMP).
A 30-year fixed mortgage in San Diego carries an average interest rate of 4.075 percent, down from 4.1 percent last week. Interest on 15-year fixed loans remained at 3.725 percent.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) reported last week that 30-year fixed loans during the same period hit an all-time low of 4.49 percent, down from 4.45 percent the week previous and 5.22 percent a year ago.
Interest rates for 15-year fixed mortgages during the period were 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent a week ago and 4.63 percent a year ago.
Conventional seven-year ARM rates remained at 3.25 percent in the county. Rates on five- and three-year ARMs were 2.95 and 2.925 percent, down from the previous week when both were 3.031 percent.
Thirty-year fixed FHA and VA loans were both 4.225 percent, up from the week previous when FHA loans were 4.175 percent and VA loans were 4.188 percent.
"This is a continuation of the national trend with slight adjustments," said David Van Waldick, president elect for 2011 of SD-CAMP and principal of Western Mortgage in Carlsbad, adding that the averages can be affected in any given week by market conditions or an individual lender’s position.
Warning that predicting short-term fluctuations of mortgage rates is difficult because they are affected by global economic developments, Van Waldick said he could envision rates continuing to decline, setting 3.5 percent on a 30-year fixed loan as the absolute basement.
"You could argue that given government stimulus and bank borrowing rates, that we’d see rates lower still," he said. "With the Fed charging banks at essentially 0 percent interest, you could say they should be passing this on to consumers. Clearly banks seem to be holding a little juice in their own pockets."
He said the increases in rates for FHA and VA loans could be attributed to adjustments from individual lenders, but speculated that they might be the result of the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s announcement last week that it would reduce upfront premiums on FHA loans while increasing monthly premiums.
The averages reflect the published rates of five major mortgage lenders or banks in San Diego County for each of the six mortgage types.
Marsha Lenyk, president of Award Mortgage Inc. compiled the rates on Friday, Aug. 6.
SD-CAMP’s averages assume a loan amount up to the conforming loan limit of $417,000, a maximum loan-to-value of 80 percent and an interest rate with one point origination fee for borrowers with a minimum credit score of 720 -- with fully documented income for a single-family, detached, owner-occupied, primary residence
Monday, August 9, 2010
Mirroring the national trend, average mortgage rates continued to fall in San Diego County during the week ending Aug. 6, according to numbers released by the San Diego Chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Professionals (SD-CAMP).
A 30-year fixed mortgage in San Diego carries an average interest rate of 4.075 percent, down from 4.1 percent last week. Interest on 15-year fixed loans remained at 3.725 percent.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) reported last week that 30-year fixed loans during the same period hit an all-time low of 4.49 percent, down from 4.45 percent the week previous and 5.22 percent a year ago.
Interest rates for 15-year fixed mortgages during the period were 3.95 percent, down from 4 percent a week ago and 4.63 percent a year ago.
Conventional seven-year ARM rates remained at 3.25 percent in the county. Rates on five- and three-year ARMs were 2.95 and 2.925 percent, down from the previous week when both were 3.031 percent.
Thirty-year fixed FHA and VA loans were both 4.225 percent, up from the week previous when FHA loans were 4.175 percent and VA loans were 4.188 percent.
"This is a continuation of the national trend with slight adjustments," said David Van Waldick, president elect for 2011 of SD-CAMP and principal of Western Mortgage in Carlsbad, adding that the averages can be affected in any given week by market conditions or an individual lender’s position.
Warning that predicting short-term fluctuations of mortgage rates is difficult because they are affected by global economic developments, Van Waldick said he could envision rates continuing to decline, setting 3.5 percent on a 30-year fixed loan as the absolute basement.
"You could argue that given government stimulus and bank borrowing rates, that we’d see rates lower still," he said. "With the Fed charging banks at essentially 0 percent interest, you could say they should be passing this on to consumers. Clearly banks seem to be holding a little juice in their own pockets."
He said the increases in rates for FHA and VA loans could be attributed to adjustments from individual lenders, but speculated that they might be the result of the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s announcement last week that it would reduce upfront premiums on FHA loans while increasing monthly premiums.
The averages reflect the published rates of five major mortgage lenders or banks in San Diego County for each of the six mortgage types.
Marsha Lenyk, president of Award Mortgage Inc. compiled the rates on Friday, Aug. 6.
SD-CAMP’s averages assume a loan amount up to the conforming loan limit of $417,000, a maximum loan-to-value of 80 percent and an interest rate with one point origination fee for borrowers with a minimum credit score of 720 -- with fully documented income for a single-family, detached, owner-occupied, primary residence
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Over Priced Homes Don't Sell Well
Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less If there’s anything we can take away from the plethora of Bank Owned Foreclosures is they certainly know how to price a home to move!
I maintain that you almost always shoot yourself in the foot by overpricing your home. Your home will almost always sale at or above market value by pricing at or below market value.
So why is that? Well think back at when YOU were buying a home. Remember when a “great deal” came on the market and everybody and their agents were “swarming” to the open house? You placed your offer only to find out their were 10 other offers and they were going above the asking price? This “bargain price” created an auction affect and got people excited. THAT is how banks are pricing their homes and if you want your home to move quickly and for the most amount of money, this is a winning strategy.
So why don’t sellers do it? I think it’s because there’s a little voice inside of our head (and pocketbook) that says “what if”.
“What if”- I can get $50K over market value. (even if someone were excited enough about your home to pay $50K over appraised value, their lender won’t loan the money if the value isn’t there. No loan, no buyer)
“What if”- I don’t get multiple offers and I only get one offer (May be still overpriced!)
Often fear (and greed) hold us back from making smart choices! Don’t feel bad though, even Real Estate Agents are guilty of senselessly overpricing their homes. Somehow when it’s our turn to sell all of our “market knowledge” becomes goo and leaks out of our ears! It’s like the hairdresser with bad hair!
The bottom line is, almost always, an Over Priced House will sit on the market longer and sell for less than it should have had it been priced strategically from the beginning.
Copyright © 2010 By Stephen Munson,Munson RealtyPasadena|Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less*overpriced homes,overpriced house
I maintain that you almost always shoot yourself in the foot by overpricing your home. Your home will almost always sale at or above market value by pricing at or below market value.
So why is that? Well think back at when YOU were buying a home. Remember when a “great deal” came on the market and everybody and their agents were “swarming” to the open house? You placed your offer only to find out their were 10 other offers and they were going above the asking price? This “bargain price” created an auction affect and got people excited. THAT is how banks are pricing their homes and if you want your home to move quickly and for the most amount of money, this is a winning strategy.
So why don’t sellers do it? I think it’s because there’s a little voice inside of our head (and pocketbook) that says “what if”.
“What if”- I can get $50K over market value. (even if someone were excited enough about your home to pay $50K over appraised value, their lender won’t loan the money if the value isn’t there. No loan, no buyer)
“What if”- I don’t get multiple offers and I only get one offer (May be still overpriced!)
Often fear (and greed) hold us back from making smart choices! Don’t feel bad though, even Real Estate Agents are guilty of senselessly overpricing their homes. Somehow when it’s our turn to sell all of our “market knowledge” becomes goo and leaks out of our ears! It’s like the hairdresser with bad hair!
The bottom line is, almost always, an Over Priced House will sit on the market longer and sell for less than it should have had it been priced strategically from the beginning.
Copyright © 2010 By Stephen Munson,Munson RealtyPasadena|Overpriced Homes-Sell Slower and For Less*overpriced homes,overpriced house
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